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NBA Obsessed - NBA Basketball News

Derrick Rose only 6th best

by james on July 1st, 2008

NBA Obsessed takes you into the hit and run game of NBA Basketball.

Maybe Michael Beasley should have been standing in front of Derrick Rose?

Image details: 2008 NBA Draft served by picapp.com

Can you use math to predict how good a college player will become in the NBA?

Chris Doughty, a 2008 industrial and operations engineering graduate of the University of Michigan, pointed me to a cool regression analysis of the great John Hollinger. Using data from current NBA players, Hollinger sees how well the players’ college stats explain their subsequent performance in the NBA.

According to John, Rudy Gay, Marcus Williams, and Rajon Rondo would be the best 3 players from the 2006 draft.

So, who does John pick in the latest draft?

Michael Beasley, Kevin Love, Darrell Arthur, Marreese Speights, D. J. Augustin, and then Rose.

It’s particularly interesting to see what happens to players like Darrell Arthur who had very different Hollinger and actual draft ratings. Hollinger ranked Arthur 3rd in projected PER (player efficiency rating) but Arthur was taken 27th. (Donte Greene, Kosta Koufus, Roy Hibbert, and Marreese Speights were also undervalued by the regression’s lights).

As always, any NBA Basketball related comments are welcome.

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4 opinions for Derrick Rose only 6th best

  • Matthew Kimel
    Jul 2, 2008 at 12:07 am

    I don’t see how all those guys can be ahead of Rose on his list, doesn’t make sense, anyways lets wait a few years and see if he’s right…

  • james
    Jul 2, 2008 at 9:27 pm

    Remember a few years back the psych test given to the players said Tracy McGrady has the same mindset as Jordan and therefore would be great? Yeah, maybe as an individual stat machine.

  • Ryan
    Jul 6, 2008 at 11:22 pm

    Kevin Love? haha, He won’t be able to carry Linas Kleiza’s jock strap, ever

  • james
    Jul 10, 2008 at 12:26 pm

    Ryan, please say more, Love was unstoppable early in the season against my MSU Spartans. Does he not fit as a pro?

    Did not get to watch him much after that.

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